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Thread: Hit & Run is too effective

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    1,749

    Hit & Run is too effective

    Here are some results from two playoff seasons (Reds, 1976-77, Mogul difficulty):

    In one-pitch mode, I decided in '76 to just swing away in every case where there was a runner on 1st, 1st & 2nd, or 1st & 3rd (no base stealing, no hit & run.) Over 5 LCS and 7 World series games, my players hit 31 ground outs, of which 20 were turned into double plays. The opposing teams did not have exceptional defense up the middle. 1.67 double plays per game strikes me as excessive, as does the 65% success rate on double plays.

    For '77, I reverted to my usual strategy of hit & run in all these cases, to avoid a double play. I called the hit & run 70 times in 12 games, resulting in 3 caught stealing ( 2 of these at the plate from a 1st & 3rd situation). Two of these CS's appeared to be pitchouts (fastball high, wide, and outside.) Twice the batter took a pitch in or near the strike zone, but the runner stole second in both those cases. (During the season I did see one or two CS's when the batter took a pitch, but I simmed all but a few games.) There were zero line drive double plays; I see these occasionally with outfield line drives but rarely on infield ones and/or hit & run plays.

    I should've kept track of the base states separately, but I'm sure at least 50 of the 70 were the simple runner on 1st cases; 50+ attempts, one bad result. We all know that stealing 50 times would produce a flock of CS's, including far more than one pitchout. The balance between double plays, stealing, and hit & run is really out of whack.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    New Hampshire
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    1,920

    Re: Some data on double plays and hit-and-run

    I know that this may not account for the difference...but what were the H&R ratings of the batters that you were using? Any idea?

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    1,749

    Re: Some data on double plays and hit-and-run

    My team had pretty good hit & run ratings, something like 77 up to 90. I'm running a San Diego team in the modern era with ratings perhaps 8-10 points lower and they do have more failures on hit & run, but even a fairly poor H&R batter seems to do better with the H&R than just swinging away and hitting into double plays. "Failures" mostly seem to be taking a fastball in or near the strike zone and watching the runner get thrown out, a highly unlikely result. I don't H&R much with runners on 1st & 2nd or 1st & 3rd unless the batter has a really good rating, as failures seem to be quite common in those cases. As I've mentioned in other threads, the default H&R play with runners on 1st & 3rd should not be to try and steal home! Only the runner on 1st should be moving (in order to break up the double play and open up a hole in the infield.)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    New Hampshire
    Posts
    1,920

    Re: Some data on double plays and hit-and-run

    Quote Originally Posted by Lex Logan View Post
    As I've mentioned in other threads, the default H&R play with runners on 1st & 3rd should not be to try and steal home! Only the runner on 1st should be moving (in order to break up the double play and open up a hole in the infield.)
    As comparison, I have noted that (in BM2009, at least) the Run and Hit mode works this correctly - the runner on third stays on third and the runner on first goes.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    1,749

    Re: Some data on double plays and hit-and-run

    Can't think of any reason for Run & Hit and Hit & Run to work differently in the 1st & 3rd case. Is there anyone who LIKES having the runner on third try to steal home?

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