Hit to right side: too many strikeouts [Fixed BB2K14]

[Lex Logan]

Does it seem to anyone else that "Hit to right side" (in one-pitch mode) results in a high level of strikeouts? I've had the player who was leading the league in fewest strikeouts, and rated 90+ on hit to right side, strikeout trying to advance the runner. My impression (probably wrong) is something like 50% strikeouts. This seems the same in BM 2010 and 2011, and I've given up using the strategy. Anyone having different luck?

[filihok]

Keep track. Otherwise we don't know if you're just mad because your one high contact hitter struck out

[Lex Logan]

If it's just my perception, I would expect several other users to reply that they routinely use the strategy and it seems to work fine.

[Josh123123123]

Yeah, I'm kinda seeing more pitches taken in 2011 mogul. I usually never use the hit to the right side feature but i'm gonna test it out.

[Rongar]

I would also like to try it out more, Lex, but I'm currently happy with the ratio of success thro using "bunt to hit"(in 2010) when I want to advance the runners.

I calculate, roughly, that 35% turn out to be hits; 55% sac bunts; and only 10% a dead loss (pop-ups)

Even better, I can't recall another option that I use "sacrifice bunt", ever failing to advance a runner, but also have to admit that the bunter, himself, never seems ever to make it to first base (I usually use it for when guys are on, and the pitcher is at bat). You might like to try these plays, Lex.

[Lex Logan]

I do use other options; my past experience with Bunt For Hit, even with a 90+ bunter with 90+ speed, was a lot of popups and runners tagged out at third, but it seems I've had more success in the early 1900's dynasty I'm running.

Regardless, the point is that this strategy in Mogul ought to succeed at a rate comparable to real life, and I can't believe a right-handed batter would see any increase in his strikeout rate trying to hit the other way -- quite the opposite. The trade-off should be in power. For a lefty, the trade-off should be in average, and more strikeouts may be plausible, but not at the rate I think I've seen.

[Josh123123123]

I used the double steal button with pass versions with runners on1 and 3rd and 1 out and I would double steal and most of the time the batter would make contact and i would score and would be safe at second. Feels like it always worked, but sometimes it didnt, it is usually 90% it works.

[Lex Logan]

OK, I've collected some data. I sim most of my games but use one-pitch mode for post-season and occasional regular season games.
For LHB's : 21 successes in 31 tries, 6 strikeouts.
For RHB's : 8 successes in 17 tries, 5 strikeouts.

"Success" is any time the runner advances, regardless of reason.
All tries were with a batter rated 75+ on Hit To Right Side. That limited my RHB data because not many RHB's have a good rating for this.

What's odd is that when I first started recording, I had something like 3 KO's in the first 5 or 6 tries for both sides -- it was looking pretty awful, and confirmed my perception. Then the LHB's essentially quit striking out and starting advancing the runner almost every time. The RHB success rate was like 3 out of 10 -- then they caught up a bit. It's like there was a "learning curve" for this tactic!

At this point I'm comfortable using HTRS for LHB's, and I'm beginning to suspect it was just a perception issue even for the RHB's. I'll continue to collect data. If anyone else wants to contribute, that would speed things up. Please follow the same guidelines: only count 75+ rated batters, and count a success any time the runner advances (even when the ball is actually hit to the left.)

[Lex Logan]

Here's the data for 100 "Hit to right side" attempts each from RH and LH batters (all rated at least 75 for this skill):

RHB 59 successes in 100 tries, 26 strikeouts
LHB 59 successes in 100 tries, 25 strikeouts

For the first 50 or so attempts, the LHB's were doing much better, then they got worse and the RHB's fared better.

The 59% success rate (plus or minus 7% margin of error for this sample size) seems pretty reasonable, but my impression of a high strikeout rate is confirmed: 25.5% versus 10.4% lifetime for all the hitters in my 1992 Reds lineup who have a 75+ hit to right side rating. (Same margin of error, so the true strikeout rate is, with 95% confidence, somewhere between 18.5% and 32.5%.)

It is my impression that the probability of advancing the runner is not a whole lot better using this tactic than not (this was observable since, with one out, I did not generally use the tactic) but I did not think to keep a record of the cases where I did not use the tactic. Still, that 15% or so extra strikeout chance is a lot to make up.

An increased chance of striking out may make some sense for LHB's, but I think it's completely illogical for RHB's. If anything, they should be less likely to strike out since they aren't trying to pull the ball; but their power should suffer.

At this point I'm inclined not to use the tactic any more, but I guess I better keep some stats so I can compare. Unfortunately I did not think the record how often the runner scored, or frequency of extra base hits, etc., so it may be difficult to properly evaluate this tactic.

[Lex Logan]

Here's some data for players swinging away when there is a runner on 2nd and 0 or 1 out:
RHB's succeeded 63/125, 23 K's (50% / 18%).
LHB's succeeded 48/79, 11 K's (61% / 11%).
Overall 54% success, 17% strikeouts. "Success" was any time the runner advanced, for any reason, or the batter avoided making an out (walk or HBP.)

The margin of error is about 9% for RHB's, 11% for LHB's, and 7% overall. I have no idea why the strikeouts are so high in this situation; perhaps the pitchers "bring the heat" to try and escape with no runs scored.

"Hit to right side" may be slightly useful for a RHB with a good rating and appears pointless for LHB's. A larger sample size and more detailed stats would be needed for a firm conclusion but it seems pretty clear that there cannot be a big advantage to using the tactic with LHB's who naturally tend to hit to the right side anyway.

[Clay Dreslough]

Lex -- Nice catch. Batters were being way too aggressive on pitches on right half of plate (regardless of handedness), and taking too many pitches on left half of plate for strikes.

I'm assuming that the extra strikeouts when swinging away are just due to a small sample size...

Clay